Economia

FRONTEIRA FELIZ…Dólar cai e volta abaixo de R$3,25 com exterior e BC

Dólar cai e volta abaixo de R$3,25 com exterior e BC

Gary CamerDólar: dólar recuou 1,63 por cento, a 3,2429 reais na venda

Bruno Federowski, da Reuters

São Paulo – O dólar recuou mais de 1,5 por cento e fechou no menor nível desde o início de julho, reagindo a apostas de que os juros demorarão mais para subir nos Estados Unidos e à atuação limitada do Banco Central brasileiro.

A moeda norte-americana, no entanto, encerrou o mês com leve alta.

Operadores acreditam que o dólar pode sofrer nova onda de desvalorização no curto prazo, após a conclusão do impeachment da presidente afastada Dilma Rousseff prevista para o final de agosto, que pode convencer investidores estrangeiros a voltarem com mais força ao Brasil por considerar que um risco político foi afastado.
O dólar recuou 1,63 por cento, a 3,2429 reais na venda, menor nível de fechamento desde 1º de julho (3,2328 reais). Na mínima do dia foi a 3,2280 reais e, na máxima, a 3,2932 reais.

A moeda norte-americana acumulou queda de 0,47 por cento na semana e alta de 0,92 por cento em julho.

“Com a aprovação do impeachment, não acho impossível o dólar voltar a buscar novamente níveis próximos de 3 reais”, disse o diretor de câmbio do Banco Paulista, Tarcísio Rodrigues.

Muitos operadores vêm ressaltando o fato de que, mesmo com a queda recente do dólar para os menores níveis em quase um ano, os dados do BC sobre o fluxo cambial continuam apresentando resultado negativo no fluxo financeiro.

Isso porque, segundo analistas, muitos investidores estrangeiros estão esperando a confirmação da troca de governo para voltar ao Brasil.

As promessas de austeridade fiscal do presidente interino Michel Temer vêm sendo bem recebidas pelo mercado, embora muitos operadores ressaltem que ainda não foram anunciadas muitas medidas concretas nesse sentido.

Nesta sessão, dados fracos sobre a economia dos EUA imprimiram forte queda ao dólar em todo o mundo, mas o mercado brasileiro foi além pela ausência de leilões de swaps reversos –equivalentes à compra futura de dólares– do BC, que apenas realizou leilão de linha para rolagem dos contratos já existentes

“Sem o BC atuando (com swaps reversos), o dado dos EUA faz mais efeito sobre o mercado brasileiro”, disse o operador da corretora Spinelli José Carlos Amado.

A economia dos EUA cresceu apenas 1,2 por cento em termos anualizados no segundo trimestre, bem aquém das expectativas de 2,6 por cento em pesquisa da Reuters.

Os números tiraram força das expectativas de que o Federal Reserve, banco central norte-americano, possa elevar os juros ainda neste ano.

A perspectiva de aumento de juros nos EUA vinha pesando sobre ativos de mercados emergentes, que se beneficiam dos rendimentos locais elevados. Nesse sentido, o dólar recuou em relação às principais moedas emergentes nesta sessão, com operadores deixando de lado a decepção com o aumento apenas modesto dos estímulos monetários japoneses anunciado nesta manhã.

SEM LEILÃO

O BC vinha atuando por meio de swaps reversos em todos os pregões deste mês exceto um. E agora, neste pregão. Mesmo tendo acentuado a queda do dólar frente ao real, especialistas não viram na inação do BC mudança de rumo na política de intervenções, avaliando que preferiu não atuar em um dia de volatilidade acentuada pela briga pela Ptax de julho.

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Operadores costumam brigar nas últimas sessões do mês para influenciar a formação da taxa, que serve de referência para contratos cambiais.

Mesmo antes de Ilan Goldfajn assumir como presidente do BC, eram raros os leilões de swap cambial nos últimos pregões do mês.

“Pegou um pouco de surpresa o mercado porque é um BC novo, não sabia se ele ia manter o padrão (e não fazer leilão de swap no último dia do mês)”, disse o operador de um banco nacional que negocia diretamente com o BC. “Espero que ele retome os swaps (na segunda-feira)”.

Ilan tem mantido a política de reduzir o estoque de swaps tradicionais, que equivalem a venda futura de dólares. Atualmente, o estoque total na carteira do BC corresponde a cerca de 53 bilhões de dólares, praticamente a metade dos mais de 100 bilhões de dólares no final de 2015. Só em julho, a redução foi de em torno de 10 bilhões de dólares.

Nesta manhã, o BC ofertou até 3,9 bilhões de dólares com compromisso de recompra para rolar contratos já existentes, operação que também era realizada frequentemente no último pregão de cada mês pelo BC de Alexandre Tombini.

Texto atualizado às 17h23

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